3.5 Current Publishing Trends
Learning Objectives
- Indicate the effect of blockbuster syndrome on the publishing industry.
- Recognize how book superstores have changed the business of bookselling.
- Identify the causes and results of price wars in the book industry.
The last few decades have seen a sharp rise in electronic entertainment. The rise of digital platforms and the increasing diversity of media content have led to a more fragmented media consumption landscape. Video game and digital entertainment consumption has continued its upward trend. As of 2023, time spent playing video games or using a computer for leisure averaged 34 minutes a day across all age groups, beating out reading by four minutes a day (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023). In a world full of entertainment options, each clamoring for people’s time, the publishing industry means to do everything it can to capture readers’ attention.
Blockbuster Syndrome
Imagine this scenario: A young author has spent the last few years slaving over a novel, rewriting and revising until the whole thing feels polished, exciting, and fresh. They send out their manuscript and luckily find a literary agent eager to support their work. The agent sells the book to a publisher, netting the author a decent advance; the book goes on to garner great reviews, win some awards, and sell 20,000 copies. To most people, this situation sounds like a dream come true. But in an increasingly commercialized publishing industry that focuses on finding the next blockbuster, this burgeoning author could find it difficult to get their contract renewed.
In an industry increasingly dominated by large media corporations with obligations to stockholders, publishers feel pressured to turn a profit. As a result, they tend to bank on sure-fire best sellers, books they expect to sell millions (or tens of millions) of copies, regardless of literary merit. The industry’s growing focus on a few best-selling authors, called blockbuster syndrome, often means less support and less money for the vast majority of writers who don’t sell millions of copies.
Authors receive an advance, a sum of money paid in expectation of future royalties, a percentage of the book’s sale price. So if a publisher gives an author a $10,000 advance, the author has immediate access to that money, but the first $10,000 worth of royalties goes to the publisher. After that, the author accumulates royalties for every book sold. In this way, an advance operates like a cross between a loan and a gamble. If the book doesn’t sell well, the author doesn’t have to pay back the advance; however, he or she won’t earn any additional money from royalties. However, as many as three-quarters of books don’t earn back their advances, meaning that their authors don’t make any money from sales at all.
Publishers and writers generally do not publicly discuss the actual sums of advances. A New York Times article estimated an average advance to be around $30,000, though actual figures vary widely. These days, though, most of the media attention remains focused on the few books each year that earn their authors huge advances and go on to sell massive numbers of copies—the blockbusters. But the focus on blockbusters can have a damaging effect on emerging writers. Many books by emerging authors get lost in the shuffle. “It used to be that the first book earned a modest advance, then you would build an audience over time and break even on the third or fourth book,” Morgan Entrekin, the publisher of Grove/Atlantic, told The New York Times. “Now the first book is expected to land a huge advance and huge sales…. Now we see a novelist selling 9,000 hardcovers and 15,000 paperbacks, and they see themselves as a failure (Bureau of Labor Statistics).”
Potential blockbusters come at a high price for the publisher as well. They threaten to eat up publicity budgets and dominate publishers’ attention. An extremely large advance will only pay off if a massive number of copies sell, which makes the publishing houses less likely to take a gamble on unconventional books. This can also lead to publishers producing a glut of similar books. After Suzanne Collins’ huge success with The Hunger Games in 2008, publishers released a flood of similar dystopian and post-apocalyptic stories, such as Divergent by Veronica Roth (2011) and The Maze Runner by James Dashner (2009). While some of these achieved success, many others failed to capture the same level of interest from readers, leading to a glut in the market for dystopian fiction.
The dominance of a few heavily promoted blockbusters continues, but the increasing popularity of digital formats and the rise of self-publishing have contributed to a more diverse and competitive market. To a certain extent, focusing on blockbusters has worked for the publishing industry. Today’s best sellers sell more copies than best sellers did 10 years ago and make up a larger share of the market. However, overall book sales have remained relatively recently. A few heavily promoted blockbusters make up the majority of all sales. However, the blockbuster syndrome threatens to damage the industry in other ways. In a best-seller-driven system, literature becomes a commodity, with little value placed on a book’s artistic merit. Instead, the primary concern depends on whether or not the book will sell.
Authors Say “No” to Blockbuster Syndrome
Discontented with the industry’s focus on blockbusters at the expense of other books, some authors have taken control of publishing their materials. John Edgar Wideman, a finalist for the National Book Award, the 2016 recipient of the McArthur Genius Award, and the only writer to have twice won the International PEN/Faulkner Award, had published more than 20 books through the traditional publishing system. But when it came time to publish his new collection of short stories, Briefs: Stories for the Palm of the Mind, he decided to try something new. “The blockbuster syndrome is a feature of our social landscape that has gotten out of hand,” Wideman said. “Unless you become a blockbuster, your book disappears quickly. It becomes not only publish or perish, but sell or perish (Reid, 2010).” Wideman eventually decided to team up with self-publishing service Lulu, which meant that he gave up a traditional contract and advance payment in favor of greater control and a higher percentage of royalties. Other authors have turned away from the Big Five publishers and sought out independent publishing houses, which often offer a different payment structure. McSweeney’s offers low advances and splits all profits with the author evenly. Vanguard offers no advances, but gives authors high royalties and guarantees a high marketing budget. These nontraditional systems allow authors more flexibility at a time when the publishing industry faces rapid change. As Wideman puts it, “I like the idea of being in charge. I have more control over what happens to my book. And I have more control over whom I reach (Reid, 2010).”
Rise (and Fall?) of Book Superstores
In the late 20th century, a new group of colossal bookstores reshaped the retail sale of books in the United States. Two of the most well-known and prevalent book retailers, Barnes & Noble and Borders (the largest and second-largest book retailers in the United States, respectively) expanded extensively by building book superstores in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These large retail outlets differed from traditional, smaller bookstores in several ways. They often sold many products other than books, including calendars, paper goods, and gifts. Many also housed in-store cafes, allowing patrons to browse books and sip lattes under the same roof. They also frequented physically larger spaces, and such megastores drew customers because of their wide selection and their ability to offer books at deeply discounted prices. Borders went out of business in 2011 because the company failed to adapt to digital platforms like Barnes and Noble had, which released its Kindle e-reader in 2007 and has performed well recently by allowing each individual store more creative control the type of quantity of content offered (Thompson, 2019).
Many independent bookstores couldn’t compete with the large chains’ discounts, wide selection, and upscale atmosphere. According to Publishers Weekly, independent booksellers’ share of the book market fell from 58 percent in 1972 to 15.2 percent in 1999. The American Booksellers Association (ABA), a trade association of bookstores, notes that its membership peaked at 5,200 in 1991; by 2005, that number had declined by 65 percent to 1,791. The decline of the independent bookstore coincided with the consolidation of the publishing industry, and some supporters of independent bookstores see a link between the two. Richard Howorth—owner of Square Books—an independent bookstore in Oxford, Mississippi, told Mother Jones magazine that “when the independent bookselling market was thriving in the ’70s and ’80s, more books were being published, more people were reading books, the sales of books were higher, and publishers’ profit margins were much greater. With the rise of the corporate retailing powers and the consolidation in publishing, all of those things have declined (Gurwitt, 2000).” Book superstores emphasized high turnover and high-volume sales, placing a higher emphasis on best sellers and returning some mass market paperbacks to publishers after only 6 weeks on the shelves.
While the dominance of book superstores has declined in recent years, they still play a significant role in the book market. The rise of online retailers like Amazon has posed a significant challenge to traditional bookstores, including superstores. However, many book superstores have adapted by focusing on in-store experiences, offering curated selections, and partnering with local authors and communities. As a result, they continue to attract customers seeking a physical browsing experience and personalized recommendations. These stores didn’t specialize in books and tended to offer only a few heavily promoted blockbuster titles. Large discount stores can negotiate favorable deals with publishers, allowing them to discount books even further than the book superstores in some cases.
Still problems remain. Costco announced it would stop regularly selling books in its warehouses starting January 2025 due to the labor involved in setting up displays (Harris and Alter, 2024). In more recent years, book superstores have also faced a threat from the increasing number of books purchased online. As of 2023, Amazon, the largest online bookseller, accounted for around 30 to 40 percent of book sales in the United States. Its market share has continued to grow over the years, driven by factors such as its vast product selection, convenient shopping experience, and Prime membership benefits.
The shift away from independent bookstores and toward bigger retailers, such as book superstores or nonspecialized retailers like Wal-Mart, has benefited the industry in some ways, most notably by making books cheaper and more widely available. Mega best sellers, such as the Harry Potter and Twilight series, set sales records at least in part because consumers could purchase the books in malls, convenience stores, supermarkets, and other nontraditional venues. However, overall book sales have not risen. And though consumers may pay less for the books they purchase through these retailers, they may lose something as well. Jonathan Burnham, a publisher from HarperCollins, discussed the value of independent bookstores with The New Yorker, noting how they are similar to community centers: “There’s a serendipitous element involved in browsing…. We walk in and know the people who work there and like to hear their reading recommendations.”
Price Wars
Part of the reason book superstores succeeded in crowding out smaller, independent retailers lay in their ability to offer significant discounts on a book’s cover price. Because the big chains sell more books, they can negotiate better deals with publishers and then pass the discounts to their customers. Not surprisingly, deep discounts appeal to customers, which helped the book superstores gain such a large share of the market in the 1990s. The superstores can sell books at such a sharp discount, sometimes even half of the listed price, because their higher sales numbers give them bargaining power with the publishers. Independent bookstores buying the books at a normal wholesale rate (usually half the list price) operate at a disadvantage; they can’t offer deep discounts and, as a result, they must charge higher prices than the superstores. This deep discount policy explains why best-seller sales have risen over the past decade since book superstores usually slash the prices of best sellers and new releases only. However, large discounts encourage high-volume selling, and emphasizing high-volume selling encourages safe publishing choices. The bookstores can only make money if they sell a large number of copies, and that usually means blockbuster works by known-quantity authors. While the threat of deep discounting remains a concern for independent bookstores and the publishing industry, the regulatory landscape has evolved in recent years. Some countries have implemented price controls or minimum resale price maintenance (MSRP) laws to protect booksellers. For example, France continues to have strict price controls, limiting discounts to 5%. However, critics have debated the effectiveness of such regulations, with some arguing that they stifle competition and innovation.
In other regions, such as the United States, the market has largely been left unregulated. This has led to increased competition and the rise of online retailers like Amazon, which often offer significant discounts on books As a result, many independent bookstores have faced challenges in competing with these large players.
The brick-and-mortar bookstores have even more competition. Wal-Mart and other discount retailers sell more copies of the few books they offer at their stores, so they can negotiate even more favorable terms with publishers. Amazon, which dominates online book sales, routinely discounts books 20 percent or more.
Other online retailers have attempted to battle with Amazon for online bookselling profit dominance. The competitive landscape of the book market has intensified since 2009, with online retailers like Amazon and brick-and-mortar giants like Walmart engaging in aggressive price wars. In recent years, similar instances of price-matching and undercutting between these major players have occurred, particularly during peak sales periods like the holiday season. While the specific tactics may have evolved, the underlying theme of intense competition for market share remains a defining characteristic of the modern book industry..
While it may seem comical that major retailers duke it out over mere pennies, book retailers from the independents to the large chains find the situation quite sobering. The startling thing about the price wars among Amazon, Target, and Wal-Mart was that no one involved expected to make any money from these deeply discounted books. At $9 or less, these books almost certainly sold at below retail value, perhaps by quite a lot.
If a book’s list price is $35, its wholesale price is usually around half of that, in this case $17. If that book is priced at $9, that means an $8 loss to the retailer per copy. Although at first this seems like blatantly bad business, it works because all of these retailers are in the business of selling much more than just books. Large online retailers use the deep discounts to lure customers to their websites in hopes that these customers will purchase other items. These book sales serve a valuable purpose by driving traffic to the retailer’s website. However, booksellers whose main business consists solely of selling books, such as local independent bookstores, cannot afford this luxury.
E-books have also entered into the retail struggle. Because they lack printing costs, e-books cost relatively little to make, and consumers expect to see the savings on their end. However, book publishers still sell the books to distributors at wholesale prices—about half of the retail value of the hardcover version. To tempt buyers, companies such as Amazon charge only $9.99 for the average e-title, once again taking a loss (Stone & Rich, 2009). Online businesses hope to make up for the cost differential with device sales—consumers may feel more likely to spend hundreds of dollars on an inexpensive reader to access cheaper books. While major retailers may eventually profit from this method of sales, many wonder how long it will last. Author David Baldacci argues that a book industry based solely on profit isn’t sustainable. In the end, he argues, “there won’t be anyone selling [books] anymore because you just can’t make any money (Rich, 2009).”
The inclination to focus only on net profits indicates a larger trend in the book industry. While the retail landscape has evolved in recent years, with some traditional brick-and-mortar stores facing challenges, online retailers like Amazon have continued to expand their reach. This increased competition has generally led to lower prices for consumers, although the overall trend has been influenced by factors such as inflation and supply chain disruptions. As for popular books, they continue to receive significant attention, driven by marketing campaigns, social media buzz, and recommendations from influencers and book clubs. While this has positive short-term results for consumers and large retailers, the effects have proven devastating for most authors and smaller bookstores. Although, in the end, the introduction of e-books may cause no more harm to the industry than the explosion of paperbacks in the early 1900s, the larger emphasis on quantity over quality threatens the literary value and sustainability of books.
